UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Uroš Medić lands a thudding uppercut on Tim Means. Credit: MMA Junkie.

The UFC heads to Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia, for an exciting Fight Night card. The event is loaded with high-level prospects, popular local talent, and established veterans, all looking for a highlight-reel victory this weekend. In the co-main event, former Light Heavyweight champion Jan Błachowicz will take on surging kickboxer Navajo Stirling. In the main event, red-hot knockout artist Uroš Medić will square off with the always-dangerous Daniel Rodriguez. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.

Miloš Janičić vs. Noah Gugnon

Miloš Janičić fires a stiff left hand at Jaroslav Pokorný. Credit: Oktagon MMA.

Lightweight Bout

Miloš Janičić: 19-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Noah Gugnon: 9-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Janičić is on an eight-fight win streak and making his UFC debut. He’s a powerful, accurate kickboxer with outstanding technical skills. He’s composed and takes his time, throwing with plenty of power and volume without getting wild. Janičić will constantly look to set up his lead hand and fights behind his jab, constantly pumping it out before throwing power shots. Training at Borilački Klub, he regularly mixes body shots into combinations and tends to heat up as the fight continues, increasing his output and pace. He won’t typically shoot for takedowns, but he has solid scrambles on the mat and will relentlessly rain down vicious ground-and-pound from top position. Janičić has fought in three weight classes across various combat sports, including bare-knuckle boxing, kickboxing, and MMA, so he’s never afraid of a scrap.

Noah Gugnon is announced inside the cage before defeating Bruno Matos De Souza. Credit: Ares FC.

Gugnon is on a five-fight win streak and making his UFC debut. He’s a versatile fighter with strong wrestling and explosive striking. He throws every shot with knockout intent and is always coming forward, pressuring his opponent and crashing into the pocket to land heavy combinations. Gugnon has solid distance management and won’t take much damage, but he can get wild and swing for the fences, unloading huge, looping hooks and uppercuts. Training at Ghost Arena, he uses his aggressive striking to mask his grappling, and he has excellent throws from the clinch. He has heavy top pressure and is relentless in top position, constantly working to posture up and do damage while looking for openings to grab a choke. He has finished all of his professional wins, with six of those nine finishes coming in the first round.

Vlasto Čepo vs. Gilbert Urbina

Vlasto Čepo unloads punches onto a grounded Ion Taburceanu. Credit: Oktagon MMA.

Middleweight Bout

Vlasto Čepo: 14-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Gilbert Urbina: 7-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Čepo has won four of his last five fights and is making his UFC debut. He’s a wild, power-punching brawler who always pushes the pace. He comes out guns blazing, pressuring his opponent from the opening bell and unloading looping shots. Čepo is more than willing to eat a punch to land one and has proven impressively durable, able to recover from serious damage and keep brawling. He throws every shot with serious power, sitting down and loading up regularly while headhunting relentlessly. Training at Spartakus Fight Gym, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges but has good get-ups and will rain down brutal ground-and-pound if he finds himself in top position. Čepo is extremely dangerous early on and has secured all of his professional wins by finish, with all but one of his finishes coming in the first round.

Gilbert Urbina lets his hands go on Orion Cosce. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Urbina has won one of his last five bouts and has a UFC win over Orion Cosce (8-2-0). He’s a powerful, well-rounded fighter who’s always pursuing a finish. He throws every shot with power and uses his size effectively, regularly firing heavy, long straight punches. He has great knees and will constantly blast his opponent to the body in the clinch. Training at the BMF Ranch, Urbina is averaging nearly three takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC and will immediately look to do damage from the top position. He constantly throws ground-and-pound, always choosing position over submission and attempting submissions only when they’re presented to him. Urbina is willing to get wild, brawling in the pocket or attempting flashy strikes on the feet.  

Duško Todorović vs. Robert Valentin

Duško Todorović lands a cracking right hand on José Medina. Credit: MMA Junkie.

Middleweight Bout

Duško Todorović: 13-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Robert Valentin: 12-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Todorović has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Maki Pitolo (15-11-0), Dequan Townsend (22-13-0), and José Medina (11-7-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper who’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He has solid power in his hands and is willing to take a shot to land one, regularly charging forward and throwing heavy hooks while keeping his chin high. Todorović has a solid arsenal of kicks he’ll use from range, typically throwing naked kicks to the head or legs. Training at Secutor, he has black belts in Taekwondo and BJJ and is willing to grapple, often pursuing takedowns early in the fight. He’s solid in top position, maintaining control of his opponent while constantly looking to posture up and unload ground and pound. Todorović has secured eight of his twelve finishes in round one and is most dangerous early on.

Robert Valentin lands a clean kick to the body of Julien LeBlanc. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Valentin has won two of his last five fights and holds a UFC victory over Julien LeBlanc (10-3-0). He’s a well-rounded, explosive fighter who can secure a finish from anywhere. He throws every shot with power, steadily firing long, heavy punches and powerful kicks. Valentin constantly comes forward, pressuring his opponent while looking for openings to blitz into the pocket and throw bombs. Training at Fight Move Academy, he has a background in Judo and will typically look to clinch and pursue trips and throws rather than shoot for takedowns in open space. He’s very active in top position and will immediately look to lock up a submission once he secures a dominant position. He’s at his most dangerous early on, with eight of his eleven finishes coming in round one.

Aleksandar Rakić vs. Marcin Tybura

Aleksandar Rakić fires a heavy kick to the head of Jiri Prochazka. Credit: MMA Mania.

Heavyweight Bout

Aleksandar Rakić:14-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Marcin Tybura: 27-11-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Rakić has won one of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Anthony Smith (38-22-0), Devin Clark (14-9-0), and Thiago Santos (22-13-0). He’s a powerful, technical striker with excellent distance management and footwork. He constantly uses feints and footwork to draw a reaction from his opponent and land counterattacks. Rakić favors power over volume, regularly throwing single shots and naked kicks from range, all with knockout intent. Training at Gym 23, he remains technical throughout, never getting sloppy even when he lets his hands go inside the pocket. He’ll often lunge forward and throw long, heavy, straight shots before returning to distance and throwing kicks. Rakić has seven first-round knockouts and can produce a flash finish anytime.

Marcin Tybura unloads ground-and-pound onto a battered Jhonata Diniz. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Tybura has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #9-ranked Heavyweight Serghei Spivac (18-6-0), #14-ranked Heavyweight Mick Parkin (10-1-0), and Jhonata Diniz (9-2-0). He is a dominant, grinding wrestler with a plethora of high-level experience. He has an awkward, unorthodox style, often shifting from a plodding pace to bullrushing his opponent with heavy strikes. Tybura has solid output for a Heavyweight and does a good job of picking his shots and mixing kicks into his combinations. He has an explosive takedown game, regularly slamming his opponent to the mat and quickly advancing to a dominant position. Training at Ankos MMA, he’s always active on top and will continually work to improve while landing relentless ground-and-pound. During Tybura’s ten-year UFC tenure, he’s repeatedly put his name in the record books, holding the second most Heavyweight control time (1:15:30) and the second most Heavyweight decision wins (8).

#13 Jan Błachowicz vs. #10 Navajo Stirling

Jan Błachowicz stuns Carlos Ulberg with a powerful left hook. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Jan Błachowicz: 29-11-2, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Navajo Stirling: 10-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Błachowicz has won one of his last five fights, with two draws, and has wins over #7-ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (16-5-0), #8-ranked Middleweight Israel Adesanya (24-6-0), and Aleksandar Rakić (14-6-0). He is an excellent kickboxer with serious power in his hands and kicks. He has great footwork and excels at stalking his opponents and cutting off the cage, always letting his hands go when he enters the pocket. Training with Berkut WCA Fight Team, Błachowicz has one-punch knockout power and varies his shots well, regularly battering his opponents’ legs with vicious kicks. He’s averaging about one takedown per fifteen minutes and is a capable grappler, holding a black belt in BJJ and possessing excellent wrestling skills. Błachowicz has great cardio, has gone five rounds multiple times in the UFC, and has fought a who’s who of the Light Heavyweight division, making him dangerous at all times.

Navajo Stirling unloads a vicious combination onto Bruno Lopes. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Stirling is undefeated and has UFC wins over Ion Cutelaba (20-12-1), Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1), and Bruno Lopes (14-3-0). He’s a dangerous, talented kickboxer with impressive knockout power. He remains technical and composed, fighting behind his jab and avoiding brawls. Stirling constantly fires heavy kicks from range before closing the distance, and he can do serious damage in the pocket even with little space. Training at City Kickboxing, he’s averaging about one takedown per fifteen minutes and is a solid grappler with heavy ground-and-pound. He throws every shot with power, has good cardio, and has landed, on average, about 95 total strikes per fight in the UFC. Stirling has secured more than half of his wins via knockout and can produce a finish at any time, with four of his six KO wins coming after the first round.

#14 Uroš Medić vs. #13 Daniel Rodriguez

Uroš Medić drops Muslim Salikhov with a lunging left hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Welterweight Bout

Uroš Medić:13-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Daniel Rodriguez: 20-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Medić has won four of his last five bouts and holds UFC victories over Geoff Neal (16-8-0), Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0), and Tim Means (33-17-1). He’s a dangerous kickboxer with great footwork and one-shot knockout power. He’s in constant pursuit of a finish but won’t get wild or overaggressive, instead remaining technical and throwing clean, straight shots. Medić is highly unpredictable, never telegraphing his attacks and throwing everything with impressive power and speed. Training at Kings MMA, he rarely wastes energy and is highly accurate, having landed 60% of the significant strikes he’s attempted in the UFC. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges, but he has great takedown defense and is tough to control in the clinch. Medić has yet to see the judges’ scorecards in his professional career, and his last five outings have ended in less than two and a half minutes.

Daniel Rodriguez unloads ground-and-pound shots onto Kevin Holland. Credit: MMA Junkie.

Rodriguez has won three of his last five outings and has UFC wins over Kevin Holland (29-15-0), Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-10-0), and Li Jingliang (19-9-0). He’s a scrappy boxer with a great chin and sharp striking. He has a very upright stance and favors his hands, firing kicks at range while constantly looking to close the distance and throw combinations. Training at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu, Rodriguez won’t throw with maximum power or speed, but he’s highly accurate and always throws in combination. He will regularly blitz forward, throwing wild combinations, and he’ll sell out for a finish if he thinks his opponent is hurt, unloading huge, wide hooks and straights. He’s proven highly durable and won’t usually look to bring the fight to the mat, but he has solid takedown defense and submissions. Rodriguez always throws with impressive output, landing, on average, 80 significant strikes in his last five UFC appearances.

Best Bets

Duško Todorović Moneyline: This is an interesting matchup between two consistent finishers. Although neither has had the most successful run in the UFC so far, I believe Todorović is the more technically skilled of the two and will be able to give Valentin problems. Valentin has good power in his hands but relatively non-technical striking, and although he has good submissions, his wrestling can be a bit lackluster. With black belts in both Taekwondo and BJJ, Todorović has a much more diverse striking game than Valentin and the skills to either match him on the ground or keep the fight standing. With both of these fighters looking for a big win to keep themselves on the roster, I’d imagine both will be taking some chances, so I anticipate a high pace from the opening bell. I expect both to be going for a finish, and I expect Todorović to get the better of Valentin on the feet and deny any takedowns sent his way. Regardless of how or when this fight ends, I’m confident Todorović will emerge the victor.

Rakić vs. Tybura Over 1.5 Rounds: I’ve been looking forward to this matchup of hard-hitting Heavyweights. This will be Rakić’s first venture at Heavyweight, and I don’t expect this fight to be fought at a very intense pace. Tybura has looked particularly slow in his recent outings, and I can’t imagine Rakić has gotten quicker after moving up in weight. I expect both to try to cancel out each other’s game plans, with Tybura looking to grapple to contain Rakić’s striking skills, and Rakić looking to stay at range, avoiding takedowns and picking away at Tybura with kicks. I anticipate a bit of a feeling-out process to start the fight, with both men respecting each other’s power, picking their shots, and looking for openings to land. I expect at least part of this fight to play out on the mat or in the clinch, further slowing the pace. I do believe there could be some fun exchanges in this fight, but I still think it lasts at least one and a half rounds.

Uroš Medić by KO/TKO: This is an intriguing matchup between two excellent strikers. Both are on win streaks, but Medić is on a far more impressive run, winning four of his last five fights by first-round knockout. To be frank, it seems Rodriguez received a main event spot largely because of his inspiring story of returning to the UFC after spending eight months in a Tijuana prison. Medić is not only much more powerful, but he’s also far more accurate and pushes a much higher pace. Rodriguez has proven to be very durable, but he can get wild and sloppy at times and was hurt repeatedly in his most recent win over Kevin Holland, something he can’t afford to do with Medić. I expect this fight to get off to a quick start, with both fighters meeting in the middle of the Octagon and immediately letting their hands go. As they stand and exchange, I don’t think it will take long for Medić to find the shot he’s looking for and knock Rodriguez out.

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