UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan Preview
Brendan Allen cracks Edmen Shahbazyan with a heavy right hand. Credit: MMA Junkie.
The UFC returns to its headquarters at the APEX Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an exciting Fight Night card. Throughout, there are plenty of fantastic matchups and talented fighters looking to put on a show this Saturday night. In the co-main event, red-hot prospect Matheus Camilo squares off against veteran striker Jai Herbert. In the main event, two dangerous Middleweights go toe-to-toe for a top-five ranking as submission ace Brendan Allen takes on knockout artist Christian Leroy Duncan. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Malcolm Wellmaker stuns Cameron Saaiman with a powerful right hook. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Bantamweight Bout
Malcolm Wellmaker: 10-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Otari Tanzilovi: 10-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Wellmaker has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Cameron Saaiman (9-3-0) and Kris Moutinho (15-8-0). He’s a devastating counterstriker with one-shot knockout power. He throws every shot with bad intentions but picks his shots and keeps his striking clean, rarely loading up or getting sloppy. Wellmaker varies his targets well, regularly firing kicks to the legs and body as well as brutal body hooks. He has great distance management and head movement, using both to slip shots and return fire, often with a powerful lead hook. Training at American Top Team, he’s most comfortable on his feet and won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges. Wellmaker has secured his UFC and Contender Series knockout wins with fewer than 30 significant strikes and can produce a knockout at any time.
Otari Tanzilovi tags Guillermo Torres with a stiff right hand. Credit: Fury FC.
Tanzilovi has won three of his last five bouts and is seeking his first UFC victory. He’s a versatile fighter with an outstanding kicking game and solid wrestling. He favors power over volume, regularly throwing single shots and kicks with serious speed and power. Tanzilovi closes distance very quickly and will constantly dart inside to fire long, lunging straight punches before returning to range. He has a wide arsenal of flashy kicks and often throws jumping or spinning kicks without telegraphing. Training at Syndicate MMA, he has good entries and timing on his takedowns and is willing to string together attempts to bring the fight to the mat. Tanzilovi has secured four knockout wins in under two minutes and is at his best early on, but he carries his power and speed throughout and is always dangerous.
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Andre Fili blasts Bill Algeo with a vicious left hook. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Featherweight Bout
Andre Fili: 25-14-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Kai Kamaka III: 18-8-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Fili has won two of his last five outings and holds UFC victories over Charles Jourdain (18-9-1), Bill Algeo (18-9-0), and Cub Swanson (31-14-0). He’s a slick striker with solid power and strong wrestling. He’s in perpetual motion, constantly switching stances and using his reach to land long punches and kicks from range. Fili throws in combination and won’t telegraph his attacks, especially his kicks, which he regularly adds to the end of combinations. Training at Syndicate MMA, he’s averaging over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes in his promotional tenure and is excellent in top position. His striking sets up his grappling, allowing his opponent to get comfortable on their feet before he shoots in for a takedown. Fili has solid cardio and won’t get sloppy, pushing a consistent pace throughout the fight.
Kai Kamaka III fires a powerful left hand at TJ Brown. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Kamaka has won three of his last five fights and has a UFC win over Dakota Hope (11-2-0) since returning to the promotion. He’s a technical striker who consistently comes forward and pushes the pace. He excels at varying his targets and regularly lands vicious body shots and powerful leg kicks. Kamaka has solid range management and often looks to counterstrike, catching his opponents after slipping an attack or as they enter his range. Training at Xtreme Couture, he holds a black belt in BJJ but is most comfortable on his feet and rarely looks to take the fight to the mat. He stays technical and sharp throughout the fight, never slowing down or getting sloppy. Kamaka heats up as the fight continues, steadily increasing his pace and output as he wears out his opponent’s cardio with relentless body attacks.
#11 Loopy Godínez vs. Ketlen Souza
Loopy Godínez cracks Tabatha Ricci with a thudding right hand. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Loopy Godínez: 14-6-0, 1 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Ketlen Souza: 17-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Godínez has won two of her last five bouts and holds UFC victories over #12-ranked Strawweight Tabatha Ricci (12-5-0), Jéssica Andrade (26-15-0), and Julia Polastri (15-6-0). She’s a well-rounded scrapper with clean boxing and excellent wrestling. She throws everything in combination with impressive speed, never telegraphing her attacks. Godínez has excellent footwork and regularly darts into the pocket to land a quick combination before returning to range. Training at WKX Vancouver, she’s averaging about three takedowns per fifteen minutes and is very active in top position, constantly landing ground-and-pound or threatening with submissions. She has smothering top control and is efficient, maintaining control without wasting energy. Godínez is the first and only woman in UFC history to score four wins in a calendar year and is always game.
Ketlen Souza blasts Ariane Carnelossi with a vicious kick to the head. Credit; MMA Mania.
Souza has won three of her last five outings and has UFC wins over Yazmin Jauregui (12-2-0), Ariane Carnelossi (15-5-0), and Bruna Brasil (11-7-1). She’s a power-punching striker who’s always coming forward, hunting for a knockout. She favors power over volume and tends to headhunt, not throwing often but always in combination and with knockout intent. Souza is always looking to close the distance and throw bombs, and she will regularly walk through damage to get into the pocket. Training at Carioca Academy, she can occasionally get flashy and fire a spinning or jumping kick, but she heavily favors her hands. She won’t typically bring the fight to the mat, but she has solid takedown defense and excellent control in the clinch. Souza is at her most dangerous early on and has secured more than half of her finishes in the first round.
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Matheus Camilo unloads brutal ground-and-pound onto Nazim Sadykhov. Credit: MMA Mania.
Lightweight Bout
Matheus Camilo: 11-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Jai Herbert: 14-6-1, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Camilo has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Nazim Sadykhov (11-3-1) and Viacheslav Borshchev (8-8-1). He’s a vicious power-puncher with solid grappling who’s always looking for a one-shot knockout. He often looks to counterstrike and constantly unloads wide, looping hooks and overhands as his opponent enters his range, especially his lead hook. Camilo has powerful leg kicks but tends to headhunt and favors power over volume. Training at Xtreme Couture, he has strong takedowns and regularly attempts explosive, blast double legs. He focuses on control in top position, constantly hunting submissions and rarely posturing up or getting wild. Camilo tends to slow as the fight continues, but he carries his power throughout and can produce a finish at any time.
Jai Herbert stuns Mandel Nallo with a powerful straight left. Credit: MMA Mania.
Herbert has won two of his last five bouts, with one draw, and holds UFC wins over Kyle Nelson (17-7-1), Rolando Bedoya (14-5-0), and Mandel Nallo (14-4-0). He’s a powerful, precise striker with excellent boxing and heavy kicks. He’s in perpetual motion, with excellent footwork and distance management, constantly landing long, straight punches the instant his opponent enters his range. Herbert regularly mixes in heavy kicks, especially head kicks, without any tell. Training at Renegade MMA, he’s willing to eat a shot to land one, but he remains technical throughout and can maintain a heavy pace across three rounds. He has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and typically won’t look to grapple, but he has great throws and trips from the clinch. Herbert is rarely in a bad fight and always leaves everything inside the cage.
#5 Brendan Allen vs. #10 Christian Leroy Duncan
Brendan Allen elevates Reinier de Ridder for a slam takedown. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Middleweight Bout
Brendan Allen: 27-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 14 Sub.
Christian Leroy Duncan: 15-2-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Allen has won three of his last five outings and has UFC wins over #8-ranked Light Heavyweight Reinier de Ridder (22-4-0), #15-ranked Middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan (17-6-0), and Chris Curtis (32-13-0). He’s an excellent grappler with a lethal submission game and solid power in his hands. On his feet, he’s always coming forward, pressuring his opponent while fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. Training at VFS Academy, he has the cardio to maintain a consistent pace for five rounds and varies his shots well, regularly mixing kicks and body shots into his combinations. He’s averaging over 1 takedown per fifteen minutes and is relentless on the mat, constantly posturing up to do damage and improve his position. He has excellent pressure and control on top but is just as dangerous off his back and can survive in deep waters. Allen has secured eleven of his fourteen submissions via rear-naked choke and is deadly if he can find his opponent’s neck.
Christian Leroy Duncan stuns Jared Cannonier with a stiff left hand. Credit: MMA Mania.
Duncan is on a five-fight win streak and holds UFC victories over Jared Cannonier (18-10-0), Roman Dolidze (15-6-0), and Marco Tulio (14-3-0). He’s a flashy striker with one-shot knockout power and an expansive arsenal of kicks. He’s in perpetual motion, always bouncing, feinting, and staying elusive while looking for openings to do damage. Duncan is highly accurate and fluid with his striking, never telegraphing his shots and constantly mixing in spinning and jumping attacks. He’s excellent at controlling the center of the cage, forcing his opponent to the outside of the Octagon while fighting behind his jab and picking them apart with clean shots. Training at Range MMA Academy, he will occasionally shoot takedowns and quickly secure a dominant position before raining down heavy ground-and-pound. Duncan is always looking to add to his highlight reel of knockouts and has earned two Performance of the Night bonuses in his last four UFC appearances.
Best Bets
Andre Fili Moneyline: This is an exciting fight between two entertaining Featherweights. Both are dangerous strikers, but I believe Fili's size and power advantage will make the difference. Kamaka often tries to wear down his opponents by staying in their face and forcing a technical firefight, which plays directly into Fili's skills. Fili is always willing to brawl and has the cardio to do it for three rounds against anybody. I expect this fight to get off to a quick start, with Kamaka pressuring early but getting tagged with long strikes and kicks as he enters Fili's range. As the fight continues, I expect Fili to take control of the striking exchanges, using his size advantage to keep Kamaka on the outside while landing bigger shots and forcing Kamaka to fight defensively. Once Fili can dictate the pace and distance, I expect him to put on a show, lighting up Kamaka en route to an impressive victory.
Loopy Godínez by Decision: This is an intriguing matchup of two fighters with very different styles. Souza is a power-puncher always looking to land one perfect knockout blow, while Godínez is a high-volume wrestler who’s always pushing the pace. Souza is very dangerous early on and can produce a one-shot knockout, but she tends to be too patient, clinching up without doing damage or sitting at range trying to time a perfect counter. Godínez is always coming forward, won’t allow Souza to sit back and pick her shots, and has a significant grappling advantage, especially in terms of wrestling. I expect Godínez to have her foot on the gas from the opening bell, pressuring Souza, peppering her with quick combinations, and repeatedly shooting takedowns. Once Godínez gets the fight to the mat, I expect her to do consistent damage while quickly draining Souza's cardio, allowing her to maintain control on the ground and significantly lessening the knockout threat of Souza. I believe Godínez will be able to control this fight from the opening bell and will put herself back into the win column.
Allen vs. Duncan Over 3.5 Rounds: I’ve been looking forward to this fight between two top-ten Middleweights. Both have very different styles and game plans, and a big win this Saturday would put them in the title conversation. Both have a distinct advantage: Allen has a clear grappling edge, and Duncan has a clear striking edge. Considering the stakes, I expect both fighters to be cautious and look to cancel out the other’s skills as much as possible, likely slowing the pace early on. I expect Allen to constantly look to clinch or shoot for takedowns to slow Duncan’s dynamic striking, and I expect Duncan to be a long-range sniper, staying at distance and looking to pick Allen apart with precise punches and kicks. I believe there will be a feeling-out process early on, with both taking their time and the pace steadily increasing as the fight continues. I expect some fun striking exchanges and contested grappling throughout, but I am confident this fight will last at least three and a half rounds.